Poland – Latvia ( 24.03.2019)

Poland’s start to Euro 2020 qualification was the fourth match in a row involving them to yield under 2.5 goals, and the third within that sequence to end 1-0 either way. Their competitive home matches tell a different story though, with six of the last seven played since the end of the previous Euro tournament yielding over 2.5 match goals.
Ranked joint-20th by FIFA ahead of kick-off, Poland’s record from those seven matches is: W5, L2. The five wins were achieved in Poland’s last set of home qualifiers for a major tournament (World Cup 2018), and each saw either a penalty scored or an own-goal in Poland’s favour.
Sitting 111 places below their hosts, and winless in nine competitive away games, Latvia ran out 3-1 losers to North Macedonia in their opening Euro 2020 qualifier. Even so, five of their last six competitive away games have yielded under 2.5 match goals.
Latvia’s last away win over a team drawn from a higher pot than themselves (in a qualification group for a major tournament) was back in September 2009. Accounting only for Latvia’s away record in Euro qualifiers, their prospects here look bleak here, with the Baltic nation currently winless in seven matches of that ilk (D4, L3).
Players to watch: Milan’s Krzysztof Piątek scored the match winner for Poland in their Euro 2020 qualification opener away to Austria (1-0).
For the visitors, Deniss Rakels is the last man to score a competitive away goal in the red of Latvia (Nov 2018).
Stat attack: None of Poland’s competitive home wins since the end of Euro 2016 have seen them concede in the first half.
Relevantly, none of Latvia’s last six competitive away games have seen them score in the first half.
Each of Latvia’s last three Euro qualification defeats away from home have seen them lose by a margin of 2+ goals.